And I've gotta be honest. I'd mentally put Kerry in the coffin with Lieberman, who will (mercifully) soon lag with the other fringe candidates. How wrong I was. (Although I have to say that perhaps the best thing to come out of Iowa and New Hampshire is that maybe, finally, the Freepers will stop ranting about how Hillary is really honest-and-for-true going to run this year.)
Don't count anyone (other than Lieberman) out yet, though, Dean least of all. First of all, the Doctor's managed a neat bit of political jiujitsu with that "Dean scream" nonsense, and managed a solid second place showing. Remember, General Clark looked like he might nab that spot out from under Dean for a while there. Second, he's still got the money, the organization, and the support. This race is by no means over.
Clark and Edwards, meanwhile, both survive with their effective tie for third. Edwards may have to win South Carolina, but he just might manage it. Clark, for his part, can survive just by doing well through February, and has enough of the Dean equation -- money, organization, support -- to last through Super Tuesday.
In fact, this might prove to be one of the most exciting primaries in recent memory, resulting in the first brokered convention in decades. This could hurt the Democrats if they revert to mudslinging, but if the campaign stays relatively clean, there's nothing like a nice long primary to get that free press (as many bloggers more observant than myself have observed 8^).
Still, whatever anyone -- including Kerry, apparently -- may say, there's no question that we have a new front-runner. Against all odds, his initials are JFK. Personally, I think Edwards has more legitimate Kennedy-in-1960 mojo than Kerry does. Nevertheless, I have to say that Kerry has done what is almost certainly the most important thing a Democratic candidate can do right now: prove that he's up to the challenge of beating George Dubya Bush. He's the first named Democrat (as opposed to Bush vs. The Unknown Dem) to win outright in a "if you voted today" poll. (Ignore the article's gratuitous Dean-bashing.)
Overall, 52 percent of those polled by NEWSWEEK say they would not like to see Bush serve a second term, compared to 44 percent who want to see him win again in November. As a result, Kerry is enjoying a marginal advantage over Bush, a first for the poll. Forty-nine percent of registered voters chose Kerry, compared to 46 percent who re-elected Bush.No matter how you slice it, that's some pretty potent mojo. And since the talking heads do have some influence left, expect them to begin blathering about how Kerry has been anointed, with the smarmy implication that they are doing the anointing. Which, for some strange reason, will probably help Kerry.
They can be safely ignored. While Kerry would unquestionably make for a tremendous improvement over the Resident, so would any of the others (even Kucinich and Lieberman). Most of Kerry's momentum comes from his ability to convince voters that he's the man to beat Bush in November. Dean, you're my guy, but here's a hint: the movement is important, but Beating Bush Comes First!!! Telling people that they can choose anyone to change presidents isn't going to get you the nomination. Once the Republicans are run by sane people instead of the Legion of Doom, then we can talk about Democrats running on changing America. Right now, changing presidents will demonstrably change America, and only the farthest fringes of the Green party (and Ralph Nader) say otherwise.
(/) Roland X
Go, ABBA, go!
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